Macrocast report – Deferred Confidence by Gilles Moëc

Powell’s statements and strong US payroll data tempered expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts.
Market sentiment shifted following Powell’s remarks, aligning more closely with the Fed’s cautious stance.
Despite Powell’s caution, the US labor market remains robust, with strong job creation and wage growth.
Market expectations for rate cuts have moderated, suggesting a convergence with the Fed’s projections. Questions arise about the equilibrium interest rate in the US.
Concerns emerge about European inflation, particularly in the services sector, warranting a cautious approach to monetary policy.

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